Senior Specialist, Strategic Forecasting and Foresight

The Senior Specialist, Strategic Forecasting and Foresight helps senior leadership see what is coming before it arrives. The role builds and maintains economic forecasts, scans for emerging risks and opportunities, and develops future scenarios that inform planning, budgeting, and priority setting. The role combines the technical rigor of a central bank or research institute with the forward-looking approach of a strategic foresight unit, and turns complex models and trends into clear, practical recommendations.

Key Responsibilities

Economic Forecasting and Modeling

1. Develop, maintain, and update macroeconomic and sector forecasting models covering growth, inflation, employment, public revenues and spending, trade, and investment.

2. Produce regular economic outlooks, such as quarterly and annual forecasts, with clear assumptions and confidence ranges.

3. Run scenario and sensitivity analyses to test the impact of shocks such as commodity price changes, policy changes, and global economic shifts.

4. Apply forecasting standards in line with the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and international best practice.

5. Compare forecasts with actual results, document forecast errors, and refine models over time.

Horizon Scanning and Strategic Foresight

1. Run continuous horizon scanning to identify emerging risks, opportunities, and structural trends across economic, social, technological, environmental, and political areas.

2. Design and lead scenario planning exercises that explore alternative futures over 5 to 20 years.

3. Facilitate foresight workshops with senior stakeholders using methods such as trend analysis, driver mapping, backcasting, and expert panels.

4. Translate foresight findings into practical implications for policy design, investment, and priority setting.

5. Maintain a risk and opportunity register and update it regularly.

Decision Support and Communication

1. Prepare economic outlook reports, foresight papers, risk briefs, and executive presentations for senior, non-technical audiences.

2. Present forecasts and scenarios in leadership meetings and explain assumptions, uncertainty, and implications clearly.

3. Provide forecasting input to planning and budgeting processes and to major policy and investment decisions.

4. Support the Rapid Response and Decision Support team with forecasts and trend data for urgent analyses.

Partnerships, Data, and Knowledge Management

1. Support collaboration with international forecasting and foresight institutions, and apply the knowledge and methods gained.

2. Prepare materials for expert review panels and advisory councils that review the credibility of forecasts.

3. Work with statistics and data teams to improve the quality, frequency, and availability of economic data.

4. Document models, methods, and assumptions so the work can be reviewed, repeated, and improved.

5. Mentor junior analysts and contribute to building the Department’s forecasting and foresight capability.

Key Deliverables

1. Quarterly and annual economic outlook reports

2. Macroeconomic and sector forecasting models with full documentation

3. Scenario reports exploring alternative futures and their implications

4. Horizon scanning briefs and an updated risk and opportunity register

5. Executive presentations on trends, risks, and strategic recommendations

Success Measures in the First 12 Months

1. Core forecasting models built or upgraded, documented, and in regular use

2. Economic outlooks delivered on schedule with clear assumptions and measured accuracy

3. At least one full scenario planning exercise completed with senior stakeholders

4. Forecasts and foresight findings used in planning, budgeting, or priority decisions

5. Positive feedback from leadership and partners on clarity and usefulness of outputs

Works With

1. Head of the Department and senior leadership

2. Rapid Response and Decision Support team

3. Heads of other departments and policy units across partner institutions

4. Statistics and information technology teams that provide data

5. International forecasting and foresight partners

6. External subject matter experts, academics, and consultants

Minimum Requirements

1. Master’s degree in Economics, Econometrics, Statistics, Public Policy, or a related field.

2. Minimum 7 years of professional experience in economic forecasting, macroeconomic modeling, strategic foresight, or economic policy research.

3. Proven experience building and maintaining forecasting models, not only using outputs from others.

4. Track record of forecasts, outlooks, or foresight outputs that informed senior-level or executive decisions.

5. Advanced proficiency in at least one econometric or programming tool such as EViews, Stata, R, or Python, plus advanced Excel.

6. Fluency in English, and Kurdish spoken and written.

Preferred Qualifications

1. Experience at a central bank, ministry of finance, economic research institute, international financial institution, or international organization.

2. Experience with scenario planning and strategic foresight methods, including facilitating workshops with senior stakeholders.

3. Familiarity with forecasting methods such as time series models, vector autoregression, computable general equilibrium models, or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.

4. Experience in economies dependent on natural resources or commodity exports.

5. Professional training or certification in strategic foresight, econometrics, or risk analysis.

6. Arabic language skills.

Core Competencies

1. Quantitative rigor: builds sound models and tests assumptions carefully.

2. Strategic thinking: connects data, trends, and scenarios into a clear view of the future.

3. Comfort with uncertainty: communicates ranges and risks honestly rather than single-point answers.

4. Synthesis: turns complex models and research into a few clear messages and recommendations.

5. Communication: writes and presents clearly for senior, non-technical audiences.

6. Stakeholder engagement: builds trust with senior officials, experts, and international partners.

7. Curiosity and continuous learning: follows global developments and new methods.

8. Integrity and discretion: handles sensitive and confidential information with care.